Is Another Recession Coming?

From here: "The federal deficit has never fallen as fast as it's falling now without a coincident recession."

Why would that be? Take the case of a bunch of government employees losing their job (which would be the main effect of the sequester). In the short run, that increases the unemployment rate, and the sudden decreased spending of those people who were laid off will also mean less income for the businesses where they would otherwise have spent their income. The economy will adjust, but not immediately, so a big enough shock of this type can cause a recession during that adjustment - especially when our economy is already suffering on the demand-side.

We also have the current example of Europe. The countries that have been trying to rapidly reduce their deficit are the ones that have suffered the worst from the recession. Britain, for example, is very close to entering a triple dip recession.

However, the European countries that have done so poorly have also had tighter monetary policy. So it may be that QE3 prevents our sudden belt-tightening from causing another recession. Or maybe our labor market is more flexible such that it can absorb this type of thing better. I don't know. But isn't this all so exciting? :/